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Original-Research: UBM Development AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu UBM Development AG

Unternehmen: UBM Development AG
ISIN: AT0000815402

Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 24.11.2023
Kursziel: EUR 31,00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Q3 displays ongoing transaction market standstill, chg.

Yesterday, UBM released another uninspiring set of quarterly results as the
real estate transaction market continues to be in a complete standstill as
volumes in Europe decreased another 16% qoq. Still, positive news came from
several building permits that were granted during the quarter.

Q3 sales declined 15% yoy to EUR 25m following the ongoing transaction market
standstill as we saw no relevant sales of fully consolidated projects. More
significant contributions came from a couple of residential and office
projects in Poland.

After additional negative valuation effects, mainly stemming from a
shopping center project in Poland as well as negative operating leverage,
Q3 EBITDA came in at a negative EUR 13.0m (vs EUR 3.3m in Q3'22). However,
following the preliminary building permit for the Timber Factory project in
Munich (Baubergerstraße) the purchase price for the second half of the JV
partner's share in the project became due. This mainly drove the positive
financial result of EUR 27.8m in Q3 which led to a Q3 EBT of EUR 14.1m, thus
almost halving the H1 EBT (EUR -17.4m at 9M vs EUR -31.6m after H1).

Visibility remains low, as CEO Winkler stated that at least H1'24 will
likely show no substantial recovery of the market. While this is seen to
push a large number of developers towards the brink of bankruptcy, UBM
remains well prepared for what appears to be a perfect storm for the
company. With c. EUR
160m cash at hand (incl EUR 91m bond repayment in Q4) and de facto no
refinancing event until Q4'25, UBM has a major advantage over most of its
peers and might even allow to snap some lucky-buys, which is however not
the #1 priority at the moment.

Once the market is starting to regain traction, UBM should be in the pole
position thanks to its superior product offering. Mind you, that the
requirements of the EU taxonomy, which also affects real estate AIFs, will
continue to increase. Hence, demand for sustainable properties (72% of
UBM's pipeline is timber construction) should grow further.

Despite the lackluster operating performance YTD, which is in our view
entirely due to market headwinds, the mid-term prospects of UBM remain
fully intact, given the compelling product offering of the company. Remains
a BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 31.00 based on DDM.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28399.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------


Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Quelle: dpa-AFX