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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG
21.08.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE
Company Name: tonies SE
ISIN: LU2333563281
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 18.5
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
US drives H1 eCons beat // strong H2 set-up
tonies delivered a strong Q2, with group revenue of EUR 117m, +49% yoy (cc)
ahead of consensus (EUR 108m). TB2 momentum remained exceptional, and figurine
demand is accelerating, a reassuring signal for the recurring-revenue
engine. The group margin dip (H1 adj. EBITDA margin -1.4pp yoy) was largely
due to US tariffs and a product-mix shift toward lower-margin boxes
(negative implications partially offset by scale-related efficiency gains in
marketing and SG&A).
FCF came in at EUR -64.3m in H1 (H1 25: EUR -31.8m), driven by a seasonal
inventory build ahead of an unusually front-loaded H2 launch calendar
(Bluey, Pokémon, Toniebox Lite). With tonies' sales heavily skewed to Q4,
this working capital typically unwinds in H2 as inventory converts to sales,
and management continues to guide to positive FY FCF (eNuW: EUR 29.7m).
North America: the engine keeps accelerating. The US remains the growth
driver, up 85% yoy cc in Q2 to EUR 57m (H1: EUR 104m, +57% cc). The business
case rests on increasing the household penetration (still only around 12%)
to harvest high margin figurine revenue later. As part of the Toniebox Lite
launch, the company unlocked 800 additional Walmart POS with out-of-aisle
placements.
DACH growth in a near-saturated market underpins the TAM story. DACH sales
added 23% yoy in Q2 (H1: EUR 89m, +26% cc), once again proving that even at
~60% household penetration the market is far from tapped. TB2's broadening
of the addressable age group to 1-9 years, via My First Tonies and Tonieplay
keep adding onto the existing base, while margins expanded strongly (EBITDA
margin +7.9pp to 24.4% in H1) marking the region as the group's
profitability blueprint.
Rest of World is still in early innings. ROW grew 31% yoy in Q2 (H1: EUR 50m,
+43% cc), led by the UK, France and Australia. Growth here is tracking the
early DACH curve, and with two further market launches slated for FY27 and
coverage of all major regions targeted by FY30, we continue to see ROW
converting into a meaningful contributor over time.
TB2 flywheel spinning, figurines accelerating. Toniebox revenue jumped 76%
yoy cc in Q2 (12.6m installed base), a further step-up as TB2's wider age
range and Tonieplay keep resonating. More important for the long-term case,
figurine sales growth accelerated to 43% yoy cc, the key recurring-revenue
metric, confirming that attach behaviour is strengthening as the base grows
rather than fading with the hardware cycle. H2 flagship content launches
incl. Bluey and Pokémon should enable a strong Q4.
Guidance confirmed and, in our view, cautious. Management reiterated >20% cc
group growth (to >EUR 760m; eCons EUR 780m), >30% cc in North America, and a
9-11% adj. EBITDA margin (eCons 10.4%). Given the setup, we see the guidance
as more of a floor than a stretch.
Our take: the print confirms the thesis. Growth is compounding rather than
maturing, the margin softness is a timing effect that builds tomorrow's
high-margin revenue, and each new device and licence widens the moat. With a
still-low US and ROW penetration, tonies is on track to become a global icon
with strong, capex-light cash generation.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 18.50 PT based on DCF.
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For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2386640 21.08.2026 CET/CEST
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