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Original-Research: NFON AG - from NuWays AG
22.05.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to NFON AG
Company Name: NFON AG
ISIN: DE000A0N4N52
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 8.3
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Q1 in line with muted expectations
Yesterday, NFON published its Q1'26 figures. Revenue and profitability came
in soft, as widely expected given the subdued macro backdrop. In detail:
Another transitional quarter. Q1 sales were down 2.3% yoy to EUR 21.6m (eNuW:
EUR 22.4m). This was primarily attributable to continued seat erosion, with
the base declining 3.1% yoy to 641k, as weak order intake and selective
customer losses in the legacy PBX segment more than offset growth in AI
solution. Importantly, the revenue mix held up well with recurring revenues
remaining strong at 93.8% of total, and blended ARPU edged up to EUR 10.04
(Q1'25: EUR 10.02), reflecting the positive mix shift towards premium and
AI-based solutions as well as prior pricing measures. What is particularly
notable from the earnings call are the geographic differences: while Germany
and the UK remain under pressure, Austria and Italy are showing
significantly positive trends in both seats and revenues, suggesting the
weakness is not broad-based.
Margin compression is a deliberate investment, not a cost control failure.
Adj. EBITDA of EUR 1.8m (eNuW: EUR 2.6m) was down 32% yoy, with the margin
compressing to 8.3% (-3.5pp yoy). The gap is explained by two concurrent
forces. One being the declining top line and the other an intentional
step-up in personnel costs (+3.9% yoy) as NFON continues to build out its AI
and product development capabilities under the NFON Next 2027 programme. In
our view however, the company is well equipped to absorb this investment
phase given a solid liquidity base and continued FCF generation (EUR 1.6m in
Q1). Further, we expect communicated cost measures to become increasingly
visible from H2 onwards.
AI traction is building. Customer Engagement and Intelligent Assistant
together now account for c. 10% of sales, both growing at more than 10% yoy.
This is a meaningful step up yet underappreciated by the market given the
headline seat decline. The productive release of NFON's own Text-to-Speech
AI service, built on the botario team's expertise and featuring EU-only data
processing, is a further tangible proof of innovation speed and
technological independence. While management was explicit on yesterday's
call that growth is expected to return from Q3, a broader monetisation of AI
solutions remains challenging, which is however not NFON specific but
observed across the industry. Q2 is expected to remain muted, with H2 likely
showing first tangible effects. We view FY26 as transitionary year, with the
commercial and financial payoff of the AI build-out to materialise
meaningfully from 2027 onwards.
FY guidance confirmed at low-to-mid single-digit growth and >EUR 12m adj.
EBITDA. Growth looks reasonable despite the weak Q1 based on an expected
normalisation of order intake in the partner channel, and the progressive
contribution from AI-driven upsell as penetration of the existing customer
base deepens. The EBITDA target requires a meaningful H2 step-up, which we
regard as ambitious, yet achievable.
Valuation remains attractive at 5.3x FY26e EV/adj. EBITDA for a cash
generating business with strong recurring revenues.
BUY, EUR 8.30 PT.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=66dc0278595cc51e25f7bea0e4a6bc15
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2331914 22.05.2026 CET/CEST
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Quelle: dpa-AFX
