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Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. - from GBC AG
02.03.2026 / 08:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of GBC AG to Almonty Industries Inc.
Company Name: Almonty Industries Inc.
ISIN: CA0203987072
Reason for the research: Research Note
Recommendation: Buy
Target price: 28.60 CAD
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2026
Last rating change:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker
RIDING THE TUNGSTEN PRICE SURGE
The tungsten market tightened dramatically through late 2025 and accelerated
further into early 2026, driving an unprecedented rally in APT prices.
China's implementation of export licenses, stricter production quotas, and
effective export restrictions on tungsten containing products sharply
constrained global supply. China accounts for approximately 82.7 percent of
global primary tungsten production, and export volumes of APT declined
materially following the February 2025 regulatory changes. At the same time,
environmental inspections, declining average ore grades, and stockpiling
behavior among intermediaries further reduced available spot material. On
the demand side, structural growth from defense, aerospace, semiconductors,
renewable energy applications, and advanced manufacturing intensified the
supply imbalance.
The price response has been historic. In October 2025, APT averaged
approximately USD 648 per MTU with spot highs around USD 685. By mid
November 2025, quotations reached roughly USD 689 per MTU. Prices continued
to climb through December and January, surpassing USD 1,000 per MTU for the
first time in mid January 2026. By the end of January 2026, reference prices
reached approximately USD 1,249 per MTU, representing a year over year
increase of more than 270 percent. Market data through February 2026 shows
continued acceleration, with weekly averages rising to USD 1,375 in early
February, USD 1,737.50 by mid February, and approximately USD 1,775 per MTU
by February 20, with spot highs quoted as high as USD 1,900 per MTU.
This represents a structural repricing of tungsten. APT has risen from
roughly USD 300 at the beginning of 2025 to well above USD 1,200 and
approaching USD 1,800 per MTU in early 2026. The combination of structural
supply constraints, US import restrictions on Chinese tungsten for defense
procurement beginning in 2027, and strategic stockpiling initiatives has
fundamentally altered the pricing paradigm and reset long term expectations.
For Almonty, this price environment significantly enhances near term
realized pricing at Panasqueira and materially improves projected cash flows
at Sangdong and Gentung. The move from an average of approximately USD 485
per MTU in August 2025 to levels approaching USD 1,800 per MTU in February
2026 implies a transformational shift in revenue and margin leverage as
production scales. The operating leverage embedded in the company's asset
base is now substantially higher than previously modeled under more
conservative price assumptions.
Revenue and Earnings development Q3 2025
Almonty's third quarter 2025 results reflected early operating leverage to
strengthening tungsten prices. Revenue increased to C$8.7 million from C$6.8
million in Q3 2024, driven primarily by higher realized APT prices, while
Panasqueira volumes remained broadly stable. Income from mining operations
improved to C$1.25 million compared to C$0.66 million in the prior year
period despite lower mined grades. Operating costs rose year over year
reflecting expanded corporate infrastructure following the Nasdaq listing,
increased investor relations activities, and scaling initiatives, partially
offset by favorable foreign exchange effects.
Reported net income of C$33.2 million in Q3 2025 was primarily driven by a
C$34.5 million non cash warrant revaluation gain, compared to a net loss of
C$5.3 million in Q3 2024. Excluding this item, underlying profitability
remained negative as Sangdong had not yet contributed revenue and corporate
pre production costs remained elevated. However, the operating inflection
point has now clearly arrived with active mining operations at Sangdong
beginning in December 2025, marking the transition from development stage to
revenue generation at the flagship asset.
Sangdong Ramp Up and Phase Expansion
A major operational milestone was achieved in December 2025 with the
commencement of active mining operations at the Sangdong Tungsten Mine in
South Korea, marked by the first ore delivered to the run of mine pad. This
transition from construction to production represents the culmination of
years of capital investment and significantly de-risks the asset from both a
financing and execution perspective.
Commercial mining has commenced and the project has moved decisively into
the ramp up phase. Phase 1 establishes the foundation for large scale
operations, while a subsequent Phase 2 expansion is designed to materially
increase overall throughput and position Sangdong among the most significant
tungsten operations outside China. The deposit supports a long mine life,
providing multi decade production visibility and a durable cash flow base
once steady state operations are achieved.
Production growth is expected to accelerate as commissioning progresses,
operating parameters are optimized, and recoveries stabilize at targeted
levels. Management has indicated that full ramp up to nameplate production
should start shortly, marking the transition from initial production to
sustained commercial scale output. As Sangdong advances toward full
capacity, consolidated production is set to increase substantially relative
to historical levels, transforming the company's overall production profile
and cost structure. Further optimization initiatives and expansion phases
remain part of the medium term strategy, subject to operational performance
and market conditions.
Importantly, Sangdong's ramp up coincides with an exceptionally strong
tungsten price environment and long term binding offtake agreements,
including commitments to supply tungsten oxide for US defense applications.
These agreements enhance revenue visibility and provide strategic
validation, materially reducing commercialization risk during the early
years of operation. In parallel, development work has advanced at the
Sangdong Molybdenum Project, representing a strategic by product opportunity
that will further diversify the revenue mix and strengthen the overall
economic profile of the asset.
Balance Sheet Strength and Capital Markets Access
Financially, Almonty materially strengthened its capital structure in 2025
and early 2026. The July 2025 Nasdaq listing and initial public offering
raised approximately US$90 million in gross proceeds, increasing visibility
among US institutional investors and improving liquidity. In December 2025,
the company completed a second upsized US$129.4 million offering including
full exercise of the over allotment option. This additional capital
significantly enhances liquidity during the Sangdong ramp up phase and
supports development of the Gentung project in Montana.
The enhanced equity base provides flexibility to pursue expansion without
near term refinancing risk. The company is now sufficiently capitalized to
advance exploration, development, and ramp up activities while maintaining a
prudent balance sheet.
Gentung and North American Expansion
The acquisition of 100% ownership of the Gentung tungsten project in Montana
extends Almonty's geographic footprint into the United States and directly
aligns with US critical mineral reshoring policies. Gentung is among the
most advanced undeveloped tungsten assets in the United States and benefits
from historic underground workings and surface infrastructure that may
facilitate accelerated development timelines.
Commercial mining is targeted for late 2026 subject to permitting and
engineering milestones, with peak production of approximately 140,000 MTUs
output per annum at an average WO3 grade around 0.32 percent. The project
provides geographic diversification and strategic optionality as the United
States implements restrictions on Chinese sourced tungsten for defense
procurement beginning in 2027 and expands critical mineral stockpiling
initiatives. Should Gentung achieve targeted production, Almonty would
become a multi mine producer across South Korea, Portugal, and the United
States, materially enhancing supply security credentials and valuation
multiples.
Panasqueira Expansion and European Operations
In Portugal, Almonty has advanced a substantial drilling program at
Panasqueira targeting deeper Level 4 zones with potential for higher grade
ore and mine life extension. Panasqueira is one of the world's longest
continuously operating tungsten mines and has consistently delivered low
impurity, high grade concentrate to defense and industrial customers. The
deeper zone development has the potential to extend mine life beyond
currently indicated levels and improve production rates once brought online.
Given the current price environment, incremental grade improvements or
modest volume expansions at Panasqueira generate disproportionately strong
free cash flow leverage. Continued exploration success would support
sustained European production even as Sangdong becomes the dominant
contributor to consolidated output.
Valuation Re Rating and Market Perception
The structural repricing of tungsten has materially altered the valuation
framework for Almonty. The company's earnings profile exhibits significant
sensitivity to APT pricing, and the sustained move to historically elevated
levels meaningfully increases projected free cash flow across all producing
and development assets. Given the operating leverage embedded in Sangdong
and the stable contribution from Panasqueira, higher long term pricing
assumptions translate directly into expanded enterprise value under a
discounted cash flow methodology.
In our updated valuation model, we apply a long term APT price assumption of
USD 1,500 per MTU. This price deck reflects our view that the tungsten
market has undergone a structural shift driven by export restrictions,
defense related demand growth, supply chain reshoring initiatives, and
constrained new project development outside China. While spot prices have
recently traded above this level, we view USD 1,500 per MTU as a robust but
disciplined base case for long term modeling purposes.
Based on our updated model, we derive a target price of CAD 28.60 per share,
equivalent to EUR 17.71 per share. This represents a substantial re rating
relative to prior assumptions and reflects the expanded earnings power of
the company in a structurally tighter tungsten market. At this valuation
level, implied forward multiples remain justified by the company's projected
production growth, long mine life profile, and strategic importance as a
Western aligned supplier of a critical material.
Accordingly, we initiate a Buy recommendation at our revised target price of
CAD 28.60.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=eafbd66e97fbca8845af713af80f5811
Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
++++++++++++++++
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR
Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher
Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher
Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Completion: 26.02.2026 (15:00)
First distribution: 02.03.2026 (08:00)
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2282408 02.03.2026 CET/CEST
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